Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Truck Drivers? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places truck drivers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +3.8% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 214,500 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 49/100Higher than 59% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +3.8%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 214,500BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed truck drivers are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Truck Drivers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment4.6/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Working outdoors in all weather4.8/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Hands-on work with tools and objects4.4/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Getting information4.3/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Time spent sitting4.2/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Repeating the same tasks3.5/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Evaluating information to determine compliance with standards3.7/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for truck drivers
- Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.
- Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.
- Operate equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones, or global positioning systems (GPS) equipment to exchange necessary information with bases, supervisors, or other drivers.
- Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.
- Perform basic vehicle maintenance tasks, such as adding oil, fuel, or radiator fluid, performing minor repairs, or washing trucks.
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +3.8% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 214,500 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 2,062,040 people work in the job today, at a median of $58,640 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full truck driver profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than truck drivers
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator
Transportation and Material Moving
- Median pay
- $46,420median a year
- Growth
- +1.5%
- Openings / yr
- 64,700
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 62/100
- resilience
Operate industrial trucks or tractors equipped to move materials around a warehouse, storage yard, factory, construction site, or similar location.
Bus and Truck Mechanic and Diesel Engine Specialist
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
- Median pay
- $61,770median a year
- Growth
- +3.6%
- Openings / yr
- 24,400
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 60/100
- resilience
Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul buses and trucks, or maintain and repair any type of diesel engines.
Loading and Moving Machine Operator, Underground Mining
Construction and Extraction
- Median pay
- $74,500median a year
- Growth
- −15.8%
- Openings / yr
- 400
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 57/100
- resilience
Operate underground loading or moving machine to load or move coal, ore, or rock using shuttle or mine car or conveyors.
Laborer and Freight, Stock, and Material Mover, Hand
Transportation and Material Moving
- Median pay
- $40,240median a year
- Growth
- +1.8%
- Openings / yr
- 340,500
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 57/100
- resilience
Manually move freight, stock, luggage, or other materials, or perform other general labor.
Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loader
Transportation and Material Moving
- Median pay
- $58,870median a year
- Growth
- +2.8%
- Openings / yr
- 1,300
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Load and unload chemicals and bulk solids, such as coal, sand, and grain, into or from tank cars, trucks, or ships, using material moving equipment.
Refuse and Recyclable Material Collector
Transportation and Material Moving
- Median pay
- $49,690median a year
- Growth
- +2.1%
- Openings / yr
- 15,500
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Collect and dump refuse or recyclable materials from containers into truck.
Questions
Will AI Replace Truck Drivers? FAQ
Will AI replace truck drivers?
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +3.8% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 214,500 openings a year.
How exposed are truck drivers to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Truck Drivers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a truck driver's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are getting information, time spent sitting and repeating the same tasks. The parts that hold up best are operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment, working outdoors in all weather and inspecting equipment, structures, or materials. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a truck driver a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, truck drivers score 49 out of 100, higher than 59% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $58,640 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to truck drivers are less exposed to AI?
Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator (low exposure, $46,420 median), Bus and Truck Mechanic and Diesel Engine Specialist (low exposure, $61,770 median), Loading and Moving Machine Operator, Underground Mining (low exposure, $74,500 median), Laborer and Freight, Stock, and Material Mover, Hand (low exposure, $40,240 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than truck drivers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.