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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Garbage Collectors? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places garbage collectors in its low AI exposure category, among the occupations least exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to change by +2.1% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 15,500 openings a year.

Short answer

Very unlikely. BLS rates garbage collectors among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do.

BLS AI exposure
LowBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
52/100Higher than 66% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+2.1%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
15,500BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed garbage collectors are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Garbage Collectors land in the low category: among the occupations least exposed to current AI.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low · this job203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Working outdoors in all weather4.9/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment4.3/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Performing general physical activities3.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Hands-on work with tools and objects4.2/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Repetitive motions4.3/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Repeating the same tasks3.4/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Time spent sitting3.5/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

The tasks O*NET lists for garbage collectors

  • Dump refuse or recyclable materials at disposal sites.
  • Refuel trucks or add other fluids, such as oil or brake fluid.
  • Communicate with dispatchers concerning delays, unsafe sites, accidents, equipment breakdowns, or other maintenance problems.
  • Inspect trucks prior to beginning routes to ensure safe operating condition.
  • Operate equipment that compresses collected refuse.
  • Fill out defective equipment reports.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +2.1% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 15,500 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 147,240 people work in the job today, at a median of $49,690 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full refuse and recyclable material collector profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers that are also low-exposure

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a low exposure category.

  1. Operating Engineer and Other Construction Equipment Operator

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $59,850median a year
    Growth
    +4.6%
    Openings / yr
    39,200
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    70/100
    resilience

    Operate one or several types of power construction equipment, such as motor graders, bulldozers, scrapers, compressors, pumps, derricks, shovels, tractors, or front-end loaders to excavate, move, and grade earth, erec…

  2. Septic Tank Servicer and Sewer Pipe Cleaner

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $49,880median a year
    Growth
    +7.8%
    Openings / yr
    2,800
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    63/100
    resilience

    Clean and repair septic tanks, sewer lines, or drains.

  3. Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $46,420median a year
    Growth
    +1.5%
    Openings / yr
    64,700
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    62/100
    resilience

    Operate industrial trucks or tractors equipped to move materials around a warehouse, storage yard, factory, construction site, or similar location.

  4. Cleaner of Vehicles and Equipment

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $35,830median a year
    Growth
    +3.9%
    Openings / yr
    51,500
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    61/100
    resilience

    Wash or otherwise clean vehicles, machinery, and other equipment.

  5. Recycling and Reclamation Worker

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $40,240median a year
    Growth
    +1.8%
    Openings / yr
    340,500
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    60/100
    resilience

    Prepare and sort materials or products for recycling.

  6. Hazardous Materials Removal Worker

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $49,450median a year
    Growth
    +1.5%
    Openings / yr
    4,300
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    54/100
    resilience

    Identify, remove, pack, transport, or dispose of hazardous materials, including asbestos, lead-based paint, waste oil, fuel, transmission fluid, radioactive materials, or contaminated soil.

Will AI replace heavy equipment operators?Will AI replace forklift operators?Will AI replace cleaners of vehicles and equipment?

Questions

Will AI Replace Garbage Collectors? FAQ

Will AI replace garbage collectors?

Very unlikely. BLS rates garbage collectors among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +2.1% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 15,500 openings a year.

How exposed are garbage collectors to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Garbage Collectors are in the low category, alongside 202 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a refuse and recyclable material collector's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are repetitive motions, repeating the same tasks and time spent sitting. The parts that hold up best are working outdoors in all weather, operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment and performing general physical activities. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a refuse and recyclable material collector a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, garbage collectors score 52 out of 100, higher than 66% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $49,690 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to garbage collectors are less exposed to AI?

Operating Engineer and Other Construction Equipment Operator (low exposure, $59,850 median), Septic Tank Servicer and Sewer Pipe Cleaner (low exposure, $49,880 median), Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator (low exposure, $46,420 median), Cleaner of Vehicles and Equipment (low exposure, $35,830 median). Each is also in the low category, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.