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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Substitute Teachers? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places substitute teachers in its high AI exposure category, above the middle of the pack: a substantial share of the work overlaps with what AI can do. BLS projects employment to change by +2.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 65,000 openings a year.

Short answer

Not replaced, but changed. BLS rates the exposure as high, so AI can help with a real share of the work, yet it still projects employment to grow.

BLS AI exposure
HighBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
40/100Higher than 40% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+2.0%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
65,000BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed substitute teachers are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Substitute Teachers land in the high category: above the middle of the pack: a substantial share of the work overlaps with what AI can do.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate194 occupations · 25%
  3. High · this job190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Assisting and caring for others3.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Face-to-face discussions4.1/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Resolving conflicts and negotiating with others3.4/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships3.6/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Getting information4.0/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Documenting/recording information3.5/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Email3.8/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Communicating with supervisors, peers, or subordinates3.8/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

The tasks O*NET lists for substitute teachers

  • Answer students' questions.
  • Take class attendance and maintain attendance records.
  • Enforce school and class rules to maintain order in the classroom.
  • Operate equipment such as computers or audio-visual aids to supplement presentations.
  • Distribute or collect tests or homework assignments.
  • Distribute teaching materials, such as textbooks, workbooks, papers, and pencils, to students.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +2.0% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 65,000 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 524,770 people work in the job today, at a median of $41,670 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full substitute teacher, short-term profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than substitute teachers

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Preschool Teacher, Except Special Education

    Educational Instruction and Library

    Median pay
    $38,140median a year
    Growth
    +4.5%
    Openings / yr
    66,700
    Education
    Associate's
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    58/100
    resilience

    Instruct preschool-aged students, following curricula or lesson plans, in activities designed to promote social, physical, and intellectual growth.

  2. Kindergarten Teacher

    Educational Instruction and Library

    Median pay
    $62,680median a year
    Growth
    −0.3%
    Openings / yr
    11,900
    Education
    Bachelor's
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    48/100
    resilience

    Teach academic and social skills to kindergarten students.

Will AI replace preschool teachers?Will AI replace kindergarten teachers?

Questions

Will AI Replace Substitute Teachers? FAQ

Will AI replace substitute teachers?

Not replaced, but changed. BLS rates the exposure as high, so AI can help with a real share of the work, yet it still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +2.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 65,000 openings a year.

How exposed are substitute teachers to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Substitute Teachers are in the high category, alongside 189 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a substitute teacher, short-term's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are getting information, documenting/recording information and email. The parts that hold up best are assisting and caring for others, face-to-face discussions and resolving conflicts and negotiating with others. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a substitute teacher, short-term a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, substitute teachers score 40 out of 100, higher than 40% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $41,670 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to substitute teachers are less exposed to AI?

Preschool Teacher, Except Special Education (moderate exposure, $38,140 median), Kindergarten Teacher (moderate exposure, $62,680 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than substitute teachers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.