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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Plumbers? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places plumbers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +6.8% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 42,000 openings a year.

Short answer

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.

BLS AI exposure
ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
64/100Higher than 92% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+6.8%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
42,000BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed plumbers are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Plumbers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Face-to-face discussions4.5/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Hands-on work with tools and objects4.8/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Performing general physical activities3.9/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Handling and moving objects3.9/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Getting information4.2/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Processing information3.4/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Scheduling work and activities3.6/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Repetitive motions3.5/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

The tasks O*NET lists for plumbers

  • Assemble pipe sections, tubing, or fittings, using couplings, clamps, screws, bolts, cement, plastic solvent, caulking, or soldering, brazing, or welding equipment.
  • Install pipe assemblies, fittings, valves, appliances such as dishwashers or water heaters, or fixtures such as sinks or toilets, using hand or power tools.
  • Locate and mark the position of pipe installations, connections, passage holes, or fixtures in structures, using measuring instruments such as rulers or levels.
  • Fill pipes or plumbing fixtures with water or air and observe pressure gauges to detect and locate leaks.
  • Review blueprints, building codes, or specifications to determine work details or procedures.
  • Cut, thread, or hammer pipes to specifications, using tools such as saws, cutting torches, pipe threaders, or pipe benders.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +6.8% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 42,000 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 465,840 people work in the job today, at a median of $63,800 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full plumber profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than plumbers

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Construction Laborer

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $47,120median a year
    Growth
    +7.3%
    Openings / yr
    120,000
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    72/100
    resilience

    Perform tasks involving physical labor at construction sites.

  2. Roofer

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $55,440median a year
    Growth
    +5.3%
    Openings / yr
    12,000
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    72/100
    resilience

    Cover roofs of structures with shingles, slate, asphalt, aluminum, wood, or related materials.

  3. Operating Engineer and Other Construction Equipment Operator

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $59,850median a year
    Growth
    +4.6%
    Openings / yr
    39,200
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    70/100
    resilience

    Operate one or several types of power construction equipment, such as motor graders, bulldozers, scrapers, compressors, pumps, derricks, shovels, tractors, or front-end loaders to excavate, move, and grade earth, erec…

  4. Sheet Metal Worker

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $61,800median a year
    Growth
    +2.5%
    Openings / yr
    9,800
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    70/100
    resilience

    Fabricate, assemble, install, and repair sheet metal products and equipment, such as ducts, control boxes, drainpipes, and furnace casings.

  5. Glazier

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $57,080median a year
    Growth
    +1.9%
    Openings / yr
    3,900
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    68/100
    resilience

    Install glass in windows, skylights, store fronts, and display cases, or on surfaces, such as building fronts, interior walls, ceilings, and tabletops.

  6. Pipelayer

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $49,000median a year
    Growth
    −3.1%
    Openings / yr
    2,100
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    67/100
    resilience

    Lay pipe for storm or sanitation sewers, drains, and water mains.

Will AI replace construction laborers?Will AI replace roofers?Will AI replace heavy equipment operators?Will AI replace sheet metal workers?

Questions

Will AI Replace Plumbers? FAQ

Will AI replace plumbers?

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +6.8% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 42,000 openings a year.

How exposed are plumbers to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Plumbers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a plumber's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are getting information, processing information and scheduling work and activities. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, hands-on work with tools and objects and performing general physical activities. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a plumber a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, plumbers score 64 out of 100, higher than 92% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $63,800 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to plumbers are less exposed to AI?

Construction Laborer (low exposure, $47,120 median), Roofer (low exposure, $55,440 median), Operating Engineer and Other Construction Equipment Operator (low exposure, $59,850 median), Sheet Metal Worker (low exposure, $61,800 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than plumbers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.