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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Sheet Metal Workers? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places sheet metal workers in its low AI exposure category, among the occupations least exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to change by +2.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 9,800 openings a year.

Short answer

Very unlikely. BLS rates sheet metal workers among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do.

BLS AI exposure
LowBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
70/100Higher than 97% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+2.5%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
9,800BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed sheet metal workers are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Sheet Metal Workers land in the low category: among the occupations least exposed to current AI.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low · this job203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Coaching and developing others4.2/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships4.3/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Hands-on work with tools and objects4.6/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Resolving conflicts and negotiating with others3.9/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Documenting/recording information3.9/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Getting information4.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Evaluating information to determine compliance with standards4.1/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Repetitive motions4.0/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

The tasks O*NET lists for sheet metal workers

  • Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications.
  • Determine project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences, or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings, or written or verbal instructions.
  • Fasten seams or joints together with welds, bolts, cement, rivets, solder, caulks, metal drive clips, or bonds to assemble components into products or to repair sheet metal items.
  • Maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary.
  • Hire, train, or supervise new employees or apprentices.
  • Fabricate or alter parts at construction sites, using shears, hammers, punches, or drills.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +2.5% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 9,800 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 119,770 people work in the job today, at a median of $61,800 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full sheet metal worker profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers that are also low-exposure

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a low exposure category.

  1. Derrick Operator, Oil and Gas

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $58,620median a year
    Growth
    +1.6%
    Openings / yr
    900
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    78/100
    resilience

    Rig derrick equipment and operate pumps to circulate mud or fluid through drill hole.

  2. Earth Driller, Except Oil and Gas

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $60,190median a year
    Growth
    +3.6%
    Openings / yr
    1,400
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    73/100
    resilience

    Operate a variety of drills such as rotary, churn, and pneumatic to tap subsurface water and salt deposits, to remove core samples during mineral exploration or soil testing, and to facilitate the use of explosives in…

  3. Roofer

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $55,440median a year
    Growth
    +5.3%
    Openings / yr
    12,000
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    72/100
    resilience

    Cover roofs of structures with shingles, slate, asphalt, aluminum, wood, or related materials.

  4. Service Unit Operator, Oil and Gas

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $58,160median a year
    Growth
    +1.1%
    Openings / yr
    3,800
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    72/100
    resilience

    Operate equipment to increase oil flow from producing wells or to remove stuck pipe, casing, tools, or other obstructions from drilling wells.

Will AI replace roofers?

Questions

Will AI Replace Sheet Metal Workers? FAQ

Will AI replace sheet metal workers?

Very unlikely. BLS rates sheet metal workers among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +2.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 9,800 openings a year.

How exposed are sheet metal workers to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Sheet Metal Workers are in the low category, alongside 202 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a sheet metal worker's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are documenting/recording information, getting information and evaluating information to determine compliance with standards. The parts that hold up best are coaching and developing others, establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships and hands-on work with tools and objects. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a sheet metal worker a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, sheet metal workers score 70 out of 100, higher than 97% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $61,800 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to sheet metal workers are less exposed to AI?

Derrick Operator, Oil and Gas (low exposure, $58,620 median), Earth Driller, Except Oil and Gas (low exposure, $60,190 median), Roofer (low exposure, $55,440 median), Service Unit Operator, Oil and Gas (low exposure, $58,160 median). Each is also in the low category, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.