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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Payroll Clerks? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places payroll clerks in its very high AI exposure category, among the occupations most exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to fall by 15.9% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 11,400 openings a year.

Short answer

This is one of the most exposed jobs, and BLS projects it to shrink. Exposure is not a forecast of job loss on its own, but here the two point the same way.

BLS AI exposure
Very highBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
7/100Higher than 2% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
-15.9%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
11,400BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed payroll clerks are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Payroll Clerks land in the very high category: among the occupations most exposed to current AI.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high · this job199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Face-to-face discussions4.8/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships3.6/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Making decisions and solving problems3.6/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Processing information4.3/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Repeating the same tasks4.6/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Performing administrative activities4.2/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Time spent sitting4.8/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

The tasks O*NET lists for payroll clerks

  • Keep track of leave time, such as vacation, personal, and sick leave, for employees.
  • Verify attendance, hours worked, and pay adjustments, and post information onto designated records.
  • Record employee information, such as exemptions, transfers, and resignations, to maintain and update payroll records.
  • Issue and record adjustments to pay related to previous errors or retroactive increases.
  • Review time sheets, work charts, wage computation, and other information to detect and reconcile payroll discrepancies.
  • Compile employee time, production, and payroll data from time sheets and other records.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects -15.9% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 11,400 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 153,140 people work in the job today, at a median of $58,260 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full payroll and timekeeping clerk profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than payroll clerks

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Postal Service Mail Sorter, Processor, and Processing Machine Operator

    Office and Administrative Support

    Median pay
    $58,470median a year
    Growth
    −5.3%
    Openings / yr
    7,300
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    40/100
    resilience

    Prepare incoming and outgoing mail for distribution for the United States Postal Service (USPS).

  2. Postal Service Mail Carrier

    Office and Administrative Support

    Median pay
    $60,550median a year
    Growth
    −0.3%
    Openings / yr
    19,600
    Education
    No formal credential
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    50/100
    resilience

    Sort and deliver mail for the United States Postal Service (USPS).

  3. Utility Meter Reader

    Office and Administrative Support

    Median pay
    $48,150median a year
    Growth
    −10.5%
    Openings / yr
    1,400
    Education
    High school
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    49/100
    resilience

    Read meter and record consumption of electricity, gas, water, or steam.

  4. Administrative Services Manager

    Management

    Median pay
    $114,130median a year
    Growth
    +5.2%
    Openings / yr
    22,000
    Education
    Bachelor's
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    43/100
    resilience

    Plan, direct, or coordinate one or more administrative services of an organization, such as records and information management, mail distribution, and other office support services.

  5. Postal Service Clerk

    Office and Administrative Support

    Median pay
    $62,130median a year
    Growth
    −0.3%
    Openings / yr
    5,300
    Education
    No formal credential
    High
    BLS AI exposure
    42/100
    resilience

    Perform any combination of tasks in a United States Postal Service (USPS) post office, such as receive letters and parcels; sell postage and revenue stamps, postal cards, and stamped envelopes; fill out and sell money…

  6. New Accounts Clerk

    Office and Administrative Support

    Median pay
    $47,670median a year
    Growth
    −6.5%
    Openings / yr
    2,300
    Education
    High school
    High
    BLS AI exposure
    35/100
    resilience

    Interview persons desiring to open accounts in financial institutions.

Will AI replace postal service mail sorters?Will AI replace postal service mail carriers?Will AI replace administrative services managers?

Questions

Will AI Replace Payroll Clerks? FAQ

Will AI replace payroll clerks?

This is one of the most exposed jobs, and BLS projects it to shrink. Exposure is not a forecast of job loss on its own, but here the two point the same way. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to fall by 15.9% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 11,400 openings a year.

How exposed are payroll clerks to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Payroll Clerks are in the very high category, alongside 198 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a payroll and timekeeping clerk's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, repeating the same tasks and performing administrative activities. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships and making decisions and solving problems. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a payroll and timekeeping clerk a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, payroll clerks score 7 out of 100, higher than 2% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $58,260 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to payroll clerks are less exposed to AI?

Postal Service Mail Sorter, Processor, and Processing Machine Operator (low exposure, $58,470 median), Postal Service Mail Carrier (moderate exposure, $60,550 median), Utility Meter Reader (moderate exposure, $48,150 median), Administrative Services Manager (moderate exposure, $114,130 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than payroll clerks, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.