Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow.
AI and jobs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places multiple machine tool setters in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +0.6% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 11,600 openings a year.
Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow.
The federal measure
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Multiple Machine Tool Setters land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
Inside the work
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +0.6% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 11,600 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 124,590 people work in the job today, at a median of $47,180 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Options
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
Production
Cut, shape, and assemble wooden articles or set up and operate a variety of woodworking machines, such as power saws, jointers, and mortisers to surface, cut, or shape lumber or to fabricate parts for wood products.
Set up, operate, or tend paper goods machines that perform a variety of functions, such as converting, sawing, corrugating, banding, wrapping, boxing, stitching, forming, or sealing paper or paperboard sheets into pro…
Set up, operate, or tend machines to mix or blend materials, such as chemicals, tobacco, liquids, color pigments, or explosive ingredients.
Production
Help production workers by performing duties requiring less skill.
Set up, operate, or tend spraying or rolling machines to coat or paint any of a wide variety of products, including glassware, cloth, ceramics, metal, plastic, paper, or wood, with lacquer, silver, copper, rubber, var…
Operate or control an entire process or system of machines, often through the use of control boards, to transfer or treat water or wastewater.
Questions
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +0.6% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 11,600 openings a year.
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Multiple Machine Tool Setters are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, documenting/recording information and evaluating information to determine compliance with standards. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, handling and moving objects and performing general physical activities. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, multiple machine tool setters score 50 out of 100, higher than 61% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $47,180 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
Cabinetmaker and Bench Carpenter (low exposure, $46,680 median), Paper Goods Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $50,270 median), Mixing and Blending Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $48,990 median), Helpers--Production Worker (low exposure, $39,070 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than multiple machine tool setters, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.