Short answer
AI will reshape this job more than most, but BLS does not forecast it disappearing. The exposure is among the highest BLS measured, yet it still projects employment to grow.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers in its very high AI exposure category, among the occupations most exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to change by +0.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 21,700 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- Very highBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 43/100Higher than 47% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +0.5%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 21,700BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers land in the very high category: among the occupations most exposed to current AI.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high · this job199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Face-to-face discussions4.9/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Coaching and developing others4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Guiding, directing, and motivating subordinates4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Resolving conflicts and negotiating with others3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Processing information3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Working with computers4.3/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Email5.0/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Getting information4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers
- Provide staff with assistance in performing difficult or complicated duties.
- Hire, train, and evaluate personnel.
- Attend company meetings to exchange product information and coordinate work activities with other departments.
- Plan and prepare work schedules, and assign employees to specific duties.
- Listen to and resolve customer complaints regarding services, products, or personnel.
- Keep records pertaining to purchases, sales, and requisitions.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +0.5% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 21,700 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 214,390 people work in the job today, at a median of $87,520 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full first-line supervisor of non-retail sales workers profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
First-Line Supervisor of Security Workers
Protective Service
- Median pay
- $55,940median a year
- Growth
- +3.7%
- Openings / yr
- 6,800
- Education
- High school
- Moderate
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of security workers and security guards.
First-Line Supervisor of Retail Sales Workers
Sales and Related
- Median pay
- $48,520median a year
- Growth
- −3.7%
- Openings / yr
- 113,500
- Education
- High school
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 54/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of retail sales workers in an establishment or department.
First-Line Supervisor of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
- Median pay
- $79,860median a year
- Growth
- +4.1%
- Openings / yr
- 48,900
- Education
- High school
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 54/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of mechanics, installers, and repairers.
First-Line Supervisor of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services
Personal Care and Service
- Median pay
- $48,560median a year
- Growth
- +5.3%
- Openings / yr
- 10,600
- Education
- High school
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of entertainment and recreation related workers.
- Median pay
- $74,450median a year
- Growth
- +1.8%
- Openings / yr
- 61,000
- Education
- High school
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of production and operating workers, such as inspectors, precision workers, machine setters and operators, assemblers, fabricators, and plant and system operators.
Will AI replace first-line supervisors of retail sales workers?Will AI replace first-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, and repairers?Will AI replace first-line supervisors of entertainment and recreation workers, except gambling services?Will AI replace first-line supervisors of production and operating workers?
Questions
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers? FAQ
Will AI replace first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers?
AI will reshape this job more than most, but BLS does not forecast it disappearing. The exposure is among the highest BLS measured, yet it still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +0.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 21,700 openings a year.
How exposed are first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers are in the very high category, alongside 198 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a first-line supervisor of non-retail sales workers's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, working with computers and email. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, coaching and developing others and guiding, directing, and motivating subordinates. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a first-line supervisor of non-retail sales workers a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers score 43 out of 100, higher than 47% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $87,520 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers are less exposed to AI?
First-Line Supervisor of Security Workers (moderate exposure, $55,940 median), First-Line Supervisor of Retail Sales Workers (high exposure, $48,520 median), First-Line Supervisor of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (high exposure, $79,860 median), First-Line Supervisor of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services (high exposure, $48,560 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than first-line supervisors of non-retail sales workers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.