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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Bus Drivers? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places bus drivers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +0.7% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 56,500 openings a year.

Short answer

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow.

BLS AI exposure
ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
52/100Higher than 66% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+0.7%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
56,500BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed bus drivers are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Bus Drivers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Face-to-face discussions4.2/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Assisting and caring for others3.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment4.2/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Hands-on work with tools and objects4.4/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Time spent sitting4.3/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Repetitive motions3.8/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Documenting/recording information3.5/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Getting information3.9/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

The tasks O*NET lists for bus drivers

  • Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.
  • Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.
  • Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.
  • Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.
  • Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.
  • Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +0.7% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 56,500 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 402,930 people work in the job today, at a median of $47,920 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full bus driver, school profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than bus drivers

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Crane and Tower Operator

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $68,080median a year
    Growth
    +3.8%
    Openings / yr
    3,500
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    76/100
    resilience

    Operate mechanical boom and cable or tower and cable equipment to lift and move materials, machines, or products in many directions.

  2. Ambulance Driver and Attendant, Except Emergency Medical Technicians

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $35,450median a year
    Growth
    −1.3%
    Openings / yr
    1,400
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    65/100
    resilience

    Drive ambulance or assist ambulance driver in transporting sick, injured, or convalescent persons.

  3. Sailor and Marine Oiler

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $51,520median a year
    Growth
    +3.2%
    Openings / yr
    3,600
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    63/100
    resilience

    Stand watch to look for obstructions in path of vessel, measure water depth, turn wheel on bridge, or use emergency equipment as directed by captain, mate, or pilot.

  4. Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $46,420median a year
    Growth
    +1.5%
    Openings / yr
    64,700
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    62/100
    resilience

    Operate industrial trucks or tractors equipped to move materials around a warehouse, storage yard, factory, construction site, or similar location.

  5. Laborer and Freight, Stock, and Material Mover, Hand

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $40,240median a year
    Growth
    +1.8%
    Openings / yr
    340,500
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    57/100
    resilience

    Manually move freight, stock, luggage, or other materials, or perform other general labor.

  6. Conveyor Operator and Tender

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $42,420median a year
    Growth
    −2.6%
    Openings / yr
    2,200
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    56/100
    resilience

    Control or tend conveyors or conveyor systems that move materials or products to and from stockpiles, processing stations, departments, or vehicles.

Will AI replace crane operators?Will AI replace forklift operators?Will AI replace warehouse workers?

Questions

Will AI Replace Bus Drivers? FAQ

Will AI replace bus drivers?

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +0.7% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 56,500 openings a year.

How exposed are bus drivers to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Bus Drivers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a bus driver, school's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are time spent sitting, repetitive motions and documenting/recording information. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, assisting and caring for others and operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a bus driver, school a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, bus drivers score 52 out of 100, higher than 66% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $47,920 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to bus drivers are less exposed to AI?

Crane and Tower Operator (low exposure, $68,080 median), Ambulance Driver and Attendant, Except Emergency Medical Technicians (low exposure, $35,450 median), Sailor and Marine Oiler (low exposure, $51,520 median), Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator (low exposure, $46,420 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than bus drivers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.