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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Transit Bus Drivers? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places transit bus drivers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +4.1% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 21,100 openings a year.

Short answer

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.

BLS AI exposure
ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
54/100Higher than 72% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+4.1%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
21,100BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed transit bus drivers are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Transit Bus Drivers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment4.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Performing for or working directly with the public4.2/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Hands-on work with tools and objects4.5/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials4.2/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Time spent sitting4.9/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Repetitive motions3.9/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Getting information4.0/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Being exact or highly accurate3.8/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

The tasks O*NET lists for transit bus drivers

  • Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride.
  • Assist passengers, such as elderly or individuals with disabilities, on and off bus, ensure they are seated properly, help carry baggage, and answer questions about bus schedules or routes.
  • Handle passenger emergencies or disruptions.
  • Report delays or accidents.
  • Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board.
  • Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +4.1% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 21,100 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 159,240 people work in the job today, at a median of $59,050 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full bus driver, transit and intercity profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than transit bus drivers

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Crane and Tower Operator

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $68,080median a year
    Growth
    +3.8%
    Openings / yr
    3,500
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    76/100
    resilience

    Operate mechanical boom and cable or tower and cable equipment to lift and move materials, machines, or products in many directions.

  2. Sailor and Marine Oiler

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $51,520median a year
    Growth
    +3.2%
    Openings / yr
    3,600
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    63/100
    resilience

    Stand watch to look for obstructions in path of vessel, measure water depth, turn wheel on bridge, or use emergency equipment as directed by captain, mate, or pilot.

  3. Ship Engineer

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $109,530median a year
    Growth
    +2.7%
    Openings / yr
    900
    Education
    Certificate
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    63/100
    resilience

    Supervise and coordinate activities of crew engaged in operating and maintaining engines, boilers, deck machinery, and electrical, sanitary, and refrigeration equipment aboard ship.

  4. Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operator and Locomotive Firer

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $68,840median a year
    Growth
    +0.8%
    Openings / yr
    900
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    58/100
    resilience

    Operate or monitor railroad track switches or locomotive instruments.

  5. Wellhead Pumper

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $69,960median a year
    Growth
    −2.0%
    Openings / yr
    1,700
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    57/100
    resilience

    Operate power pumps and auxiliary equipment to produce flow of oil or gas from wells in oil field.

  6. Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisor

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $58,170median a year
    Growth
    +9.2%
    Openings / yr
    900
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    57/100
    resilience

    Supervise and coordinate the activities of ground crew in the loading, unloading, securing, and staging of aircraft cargo or baggage.

Will AI replace crane operators?

Questions

Will AI Replace Transit Bus Drivers? FAQ

Will AI replace transit bus drivers?

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +4.1% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 21,100 openings a year.

How exposed are transit bus drivers to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Transit Bus Drivers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a bus driver, transit and intercity's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are time spent sitting, repetitive motions and getting information. The parts that hold up best are operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment, performing for or working directly with the public and hands-on work with tools and objects. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a bus driver, transit and intercity a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, transit bus drivers score 54 out of 100, higher than 72% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $59,050 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to transit bus drivers are less exposed to AI?

Crane and Tower Operator (low exposure, $68,080 median), Sailor and Marine Oiler (low exposure, $51,520 median), Ship Engineer (low exposure, $109,530 median), Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operator and Locomotive Firer (low exposure, $68,840 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than transit bus drivers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.