Short answer
This is one of the most exposed jobs, and BLS projects it to shrink. Exposure is not a forecast of job loss on its own, but here the two point the same way.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Production? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places production in its very high AI exposure category, among the occupations most exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to fall by 1.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 32,600 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- Very highBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 17/100Higher than 9% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- -1.3%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 32,600BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed production are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Production land in the very high category: among the occupations most exposed to current AI.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high · this job199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Face-to-face discussions4.9/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Making decisions and solving problems3.7/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Dealing with the public3.5/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Processing information3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Working with computers4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Time spent sitting4.2/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Email4.5/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
The tasks O*NET lists for production
- Confer with department supervisors or other personnel to assess progress and discuss needed changes.
- Arrange for delivery, assembly, or distribution of supplies or parts to expedite flow of materials and meet production schedules.
- Distribute production schedules or work orders to departments.
- Compile information, such as production rates and progress, materials inventories, materials used, or customer information, so that status reports can be completed.
- Requisition and maintain inventories of materials or supplies necessary to meet production demands.
- Revise production schedules when required due to design changes, labor or material shortages, backlogs, or other interruptions, collaborating with management, marketing, sales, production, or engineering.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects -1.3% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 32,600 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 390,160 people work in the job today, at a median of $59,650 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full production, planning, and expediting clerk profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than production
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
Stocker and Order Filler
Transportation and Material Moving
- Median pay
- $37,330median a year
- Growth
- +8.9%
- Openings / yr
- 430,700
- Education
- No formal credential
- Moderate
- BLS AI exposure
- 57/100
- resilience
Receive, store, and issue merchandise, materials, equipment, and other items from stockroom, warehouse, or storage yard to fill shelves, racks, tables, or customers' orders.
Weigher, Measurer, Checker, and Sampler, Recordkeeping
Office and Administrative Support
- Median pay
- $46,380median a year
- Growth
- −4.8%
- Openings / yr
- 4,700
- Education
- High school
- Moderate
- BLS AI exposure
- 44/100
- resilience
Weigh, measure, and check materials, supplies, and equipment for the purpose of keeping relevant records.
First-Line Supervisor of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
- Median pay
- $79,860median a year
- Growth
- +4.1%
- Openings / yr
- 48,900
- Education
- High school
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 54/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of mechanics, installers, and repairers.
- Median pay
- $74,450median a year
- Growth
- +1.8%
- Openings / yr
- 61,000
- Education
- High school
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of production and operating workers, such as inspectors, precision workers, machine setters and operators, assemblers, fabricators, and plant and system operators.
Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerk
Office and Administrative Support
- Median pay
- $45,260median a year
- Growth
- −7.6%
- Openings / yr
- 61,300
- Education
- High school
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 44/100
- resilience
Verify and maintain records on incoming and outgoing shipments involving inventory.
Industrial Engineering Technologist and Technician
Architecture and Engineering
- Median pay
- $66,120median a year
- Growth
- +3.1%
- Openings / yr
- 6,600
- Education
- Associate's
- High
- BLS AI exposure
- 33/100
- resilience
Apply engineering theory and principles to problems of industrial layout or manufacturing production, usually under the direction of engineering staff.
Questions
Will AI Replace Production? FAQ
Will AI replace production?
This is one of the most exposed jobs, and BLS projects it to shrink. Exposure is not a forecast of job loss on its own, but here the two point the same way. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to fall by 1.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 32,600 openings a year.
How exposed are production to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Production are in the very high category, alongside 198 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a production, planning, and expediting clerk's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, working with computers and time spent sitting. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, making decisions and solving problems and dealing with the public. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a production, planning, and expediting clerk a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, production score 17 out of 100, higher than 9% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $59,650 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to production are less exposed to AI?
Stocker and Order Filler (moderate exposure, $37,330 median), Weigher, Measurer, Checker, and Sampler, Recordkeeping (moderate exposure, $46,380 median), First-Line Supervisor of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (high exposure, $79,860 median), First-Line Supervisor of Production and Operating Workers (high exposure, $74,450 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than production, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.