Short answer
Very unlikely. BLS rates physician assistants among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Physician Assistants? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places physician assistants in its low AI exposure category, among the occupations least exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to change by +21.1% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 11,500 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- LowBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 41/100Higher than 42% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +21.1%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 11,500BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed physician assistants are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Physician Assistants land in the low category: among the occupations least exposed to current AI.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low · this job203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Assisting and caring for others5.0/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Face-to-face discussions5.0/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships4.6/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Performing for or working directly with the public4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Documenting/recording information4.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Processing information4.2/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Getting information4.9/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Analyzing data or information4.5/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for physician assistants
- Make tentative diagnoses and decisions about management and treatment of patients.
- Interpret diagnostic test results for deviations from normal.
- Prescribe therapy or medication with physician approval.
- Obtain, compile, and record patient medical data, including health history, progress notes, and results of physical examination.
- Examine patients to obtain information about their physical condition.
- Administer or order diagnostic tests, such as x-ray, electrocardiogram, and laboratory tests.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +21.1% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 11,500 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 162,150 people work in the job today, at a median of $135,880 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full physician assistant profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers that are also low-exposure
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a low exposure category.
Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
- Median pay
- $352,220median a year
- Growth
- +5.6%
- Openings / yr
- 200
- Education
- Doctorate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 57/100
- resilience
Perform surgery and related procedures on the hard and soft tissues of the oral and maxillofacial regions to treat diseases, injuries, or defects.
Prosthodontist
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
- Median pay
- $311,180median a year
- Growth
- +5.8%
- Openings / yr
- 0
- Education
- Doctorate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 57/100
- resilience
Diagnose, treat, rehabilitate, design, and fit prostheses that maintain oral function, health, and appearance for patients with clinical conditions associated with teeth, oral and maxillofacial tissues, or the jaw.
Nurse Anesthetist
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
- Median pay
- $236,590median a year
- Growth
- +9.7%
- Openings / yr
- 2,400
- Education
- Master's
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 55/100
- resilience
Administer anesthesia, monitor patient's vital signs, and oversee patient recovery from anesthesia.
Anesthesiologist
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
- Median pay
- $391,490median a year
- Growth
- +3.6%
- Openings / yr
- 1,100
- Education
- Doctorate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 50/100
- resilience
Administer anesthetics and analgesics for pain management prior to, during, or after surgery.
Questions
Will AI Replace Physician Assistants? FAQ
Will AI replace physician assistants?
Very unlikely. BLS rates physician assistants among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +21.1% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 11,500 openings a year.
How exposed are physician assistants to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Physician Assistants are in the low category, alongside 202 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a physician assistant's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are documenting/recording information, processing information and getting information. The parts that hold up best are assisting and caring for others, face-to-face discussions and establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a physician assistant a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, physician assistants score 41 out of 100, higher than 42% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $135,880 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to physician assistants are less exposed to AI?
Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon (low exposure, $352,220 median), Prosthodontist (low exposure, $311,180 median), Nurse Anesthetist (low exposure, $236,590 median), Anesthesiologist (low exposure, $391,490 median). Each is also in the low category, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.