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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Pediatricians? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places pediatricians in its high AI exposure category, above the middle of the pack: a substantial share of the work overlaps with what AI can do. BLS projects employment to change by +1.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 1,000 openings a year.

Short answer

Not replaced, but changed. BLS rates the exposure as high, so AI can help with a real share of the work, yet it still projects employment to grow.

BLS AI exposure
HighBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
43/100Higher than 47% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+1.5%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
1,000BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed pediatricians are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Pediatricians land in the high category: above the middle of the pack: a substantial share of the work overlaps with what AI can do.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate194 occupations · 25%
  3. High · this job190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Assisting and caring for others5.0/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships4.8/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Performing for or working directly with the public4.2/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Face-to-face discussions4.6/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Documenting/recording information4.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Processing information4.0/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Getting information4.6/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Working with computers4.0/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

The tasks O*NET lists for pediatricians

  • Treat children who have minor illnesses, acute and chronic health problems, and growth and development concerns.
  • Examine patients or order, perform, and interpret diagnostic tests to obtain information on medical condition and determine diagnosis.
  • Explain procedures and discuss test results or prescribed treatments with patients and parents or guardians.
  • Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioner when necessary.
  • Prescribe or administer treatment, therapy, medication, vaccination, and other specialized medical care to treat or prevent illness, disease, or injury in infants and children.
  • Examine children regularly to assess their growth and development.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +1.5% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 1,000 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 39,390 people work in the job today, at a median of $210,040 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full pediatrician, general profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than pediatricians

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $352,220median a year
    Growth
    +5.6%
    Openings / yr
    200
    Education
    Doctorate
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    57/100
    resilience

    Perform surgery and related procedures on the hard and soft tissues of the oral and maxillofacial regions to treat diseases, injuries, or defects.

  2. Nurse Anesthetist

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $236,590median a year
    Growth
    +9.7%
    Openings / yr
    2,400
    Education
    Master's
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    55/100
    resilience

    Administer anesthesia, monitor patient's vital signs, and oversee patient recovery from anesthesia.

  3. Anesthesiologist

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $391,490median a year
    Growth
    +3.6%
    Openings / yr
    1,100
    Education
    Doctorate
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    50/100
    resilience

    Administer anesthetics and analgesics for pain management prior to, during, or after surgery.

  4. Dentist

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $170,950median a year
    Growth
    +5.7%
    Openings / yr
    4,200
    Education
    Doctorate
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    53/100
    resilience

    Examine, diagnose, and treat diseases, injuries, and malformations of teeth and gums.

  5. Orthodontist

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $289,140median a year
    Growth
    +6.0%
    Openings / yr
    200
    Education
    Doctorate
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    49/100
    resilience

    Examine, diagnose, and treat dental malocclusions and oral cavity anomalies.

  6. Ophthalmologist, Except Pediatric

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $300,080median a year
    Growth
    +4.5%
    Openings / yr
    200
    Education
    Doctorate
    Moderate
    BLS AI exposure
    47/100
    resilience

    Diagnose and perform surgery to treat and help prevent disorders and diseases of the eye.

Will AI replace nurse anesthetists?Will AI replace anesthesiologists?Will AI replace dentists?Will AI replace orthodontists?

Questions

Will AI Replace Pediatricians? FAQ

Will AI replace pediatricians?

Not replaced, but changed. BLS rates the exposure as high, so AI can help with a real share of the work, yet it still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +1.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 1,000 openings a year.

How exposed are pediatricians to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Pediatricians are in the high category, alongside 189 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a pediatrician, general's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are documenting/recording information, processing information and getting information. The parts that hold up best are assisting and caring for others, establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships and performing for or working directly with the public. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a pediatrician, general a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, pediatricians score 43 out of 100, higher than 47% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $210,040 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to pediatricians are less exposed to AI?

Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon (low exposure, $352,220 median), Nurse Anesthetist (low exposure, $236,590 median), Anesthesiologist (low exposure, $391,490 median), Dentist (moderate exposure, $170,950 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than pediatricians, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.