Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Machinists? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places machinists in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +1.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 26,100 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 47/100Higher than 54% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +1.0%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 26,100BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed machinists are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Machinists land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Hands-on work with tools and objects4.9/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Face-to-face discussions4.5/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials4.3/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Repeating the same tasks3.9/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Getting information4.3/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Repetitive motions4.0/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Processing information3.5/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for machinists
- Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments, such as micrometers or vernier calipers.
- Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders.
- Maintain machine tools in proper operational condition.
- Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations.
- Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers.
- Align and secure holding fixtures, cutting tools, attachments, accessories, or materials onto machines.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +1.0% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 26,100 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 287,050 people work in the job today, at a median of $58,750 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full machinist profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than machinists
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
Millwright
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
- Median pay
- $65,700median a year
- Growth
- +0.9%
- Openings / yr
- 3,200
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 67/100
- resilience
Install, dismantle, or move machinery and heavy equipment according to layout plans, blueprints, or other drawings.
- Median pay
- $50,270median a year
- Growth
- −3.6%
- Openings / yr
- 9,000
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 58/100
- resilience
Set up, operate, or tend paper goods machines that perform a variety of functions, such as converting, sawing, corrugating, banding, wrapping, boxing, stitching, forming, or sealing paper or paperboard sheets into pro…
- Median pay
- $48,990median a year
- Growth
- −6.1%
- Openings / yr
- 7,900
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 58/100
- resilience
Set up, operate, or tend machines to mix or blend materials, such as chemicals, tobacco, liquids, color pigments, or explosive ingredients.
- Median pay
- $47,920median a year
- Growth
- −8.9%
- Openings / yr
- 2,500
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 53/100
- resilience
Set up, operate, or tend welding, soldering, or brazing machines or robots that weld, braze, solder, or heat treat metal products, components, or assemblies.
- Median pay
- $48,250median a year
- Growth
- +2.5%
- Openings / yr
- 15,300
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Set up, operate, or tend spraying or rolling machines to coat or paint any of a wide variety of products, including glassware, cloth, ceramics, metal, plastic, paper, or wood, with lacquer, silver, copper, rubber, var…
- Median pay
- $60,020median a year
- Growth
- −5.7%
- Openings / yr
- 10,000
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Operate or control an entire process or system of machines, often through the use of control boards, to transfer or treat water or wastewater.
Questions
Will AI Replace Machinists? FAQ
Will AI replace machinists?
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +1.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 26,100 openings a year.
How exposed are machinists to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Machinists are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a machinist's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are repeating the same tasks, getting information and repetitive motions. The parts that hold up best are hands-on work with tools and objects, face-to-face discussions and repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a machinist a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, machinists score 47 out of 100, higher than 54% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $58,750 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to machinists are less exposed to AI?
Millwright (low exposure, $65,700 median), Paper Goods Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $50,270 median), Mixing and Blending Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $48,990 median), Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $47,920 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than machinists, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.