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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Light Truck Drivers? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places light truck drivers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +6.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 107,200 openings a year.

Short answer

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.

BLS AI exposure
ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
62/100Higher than 88% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+6.3%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
107,200BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed light truck drivers are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Light Truck Drivers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Performing general physical activities4.4/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Handling and moving objects4.5/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment4.4/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials4.4/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Documenting/recording information3.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Processing information3.6/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Repeating the same tasks3.4/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Getting information3.8/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

The tasks O*NET lists for light truck drivers

  • Obey traffic laws and follow established traffic and transportation procedures.
  • Read maps and follow written or verbal geographic directions.
  • Load and unload trucks, vans, or automobiles.
  • Verify the contents of inventory loads against shipping papers.
  • Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations.
  • Report any mechanical problems encountered with vehicles.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +6.3% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 107,200 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 983,300 people work in the job today, at a median of $44,860 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full light truck driver profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than light truck drivers

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Crane and Tower Operator

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $68,080median a year
    Growth
    +3.8%
    Openings / yr
    3,500
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    76/100
    resilience

    Operate mechanical boom and cable or tower and cable equipment to lift and move materials, machines, or products in many directions.

  2. Sailor and Marine Oiler

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $51,520median a year
    Growth
    +3.2%
    Openings / yr
    3,600
    Education
    No formal credential
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    63/100
    resilience

    Stand watch to look for obstructions in path of vessel, measure water depth, turn wheel on bridge, or use emergency equipment as directed by captain, mate, or pilot.

  3. Ship Engineer

    Transportation and Material Moving

    Median pay
    $109,530median a year
    Growth
    +2.7%
    Openings / yr
    900
    Education
    Certificate
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    63/100
    resilience

    Supervise and coordinate activities of crew engaged in operating and maintaining engines, boilers, deck machinery, and electrical, sanitary, and refrigeration equipment aboard ship.

Will AI replace crane operators?

Questions

Will AI Replace Light Truck Drivers? FAQ

Will AI replace light truck drivers?

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +6.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 107,200 openings a year.

How exposed are light truck drivers to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Light Truck Drivers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a light truck driver's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are documenting/recording information, processing information and repeating the same tasks. The parts that hold up best are performing general physical activities, handling and moving objects and operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a light truck driver a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, light truck drivers score 62 out of 100, higher than 88% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $44,860 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to light truck drivers are less exposed to AI?

Crane and Tower Operator (low exposure, $68,080 median), Sailor and Marine Oiler (low exposure, $51,520 median), Ship Engineer (low exposure, $109,530 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than light truck drivers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.