Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +5.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 67,000 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 62/100Higher than 88% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +5.0%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 67,000BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Face-to-face discussions5.0/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Working outdoors in all weather4.4/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships3.9/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Processing information3.7/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Email4.6/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Getting information4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Scheduling work and activities3.9/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers
- Inspect work progress, equipment, or construction sites to verify safety or to ensure that specifications are met.
- Assign work to employees, based on material or worker requirements of specific jobs.
- Coordinate work activities with other construction project activities.
- Supervise, coordinate, or schedule the activities of construction or extractive workers.
- Estimate material or worker requirements to complete jobs.
- Provide assistance to workers engaged in construction or extraction activities, using hand tools or other equipment.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +5.0% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 67,000 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 812,210 people work in the job today, at a median of $79,920 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
Rotary Drill Operator, Oil and Gas
Construction and Extraction
- Median pay
- $67,890median a year
- Growth
- +0.8%
- Openings / yr
- 1,100
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 69/100
- resilience
Set up or operate a variety of drills to remove underground oil and gas, or remove core samples for testing during oil and gas exploration.
Terrazzo Worker and Finisher
Construction and Extraction
- Median pay
- $76,170median a year
- Growth
- −13.0%
- Openings / yr
- 100
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 67/100
- resilience
Apply a mixture of cement, sand, pigment, or marble chips to floors, stairways, and cabinet fixtures to fashion durable and decorative surfaces.
Roof Bolter, Mining
Construction and Extraction
- Median pay
- $78,540median a year
- Growth
- −18.9%
- Openings / yr
- 100
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 63/100
- resilience
Operate machinery to install roof support bolts in underground mine.
Questions
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers? FAQ
Will AI replace first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers?
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +5.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 67,000 openings a year.
How exposed are first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a first-line supervisor of construction trades and extraction workers's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, email and getting information. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, working outdoors in all weather and inspecting equipment, structures, or materials. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a first-line supervisor of construction trades and extraction workers a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers score 62 out of 100, higher than 88% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $79,920 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers are less exposed to AI?
Rotary Drill Operator, Oil and Gas (low exposure, $67,890 median), Terrazzo Worker and Finisher (low exposure, $76,170 median), Roof Bolter, Mining (low exposure, $78,540 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.