Short answer
The job is exposed and shrinking. BLS rates the exposure as high and projects employment to fall, so expect fewer roles and more AI in the ones that remain.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Elementary School Teachers? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places elementary school teachers in its high AI exposure category, above the middle of the pack: a substantial share of the work overlaps with what AI can do. BLS projects employment to fall by 0.4% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 87,500 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- HighBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 51/100Higher than 63% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- -0.4%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 87,500BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed elementary school teachers are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Elementary School Teachers land in the high category: above the middle of the pack: a substantial share of the work overlaps with what AI can do.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate194 occupations · 25%
- High · this job190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Assisting and caring for others4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Face-to-face discussions4.9/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Coaching and developing others4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Training and teaching others4.5/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Email5.0/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Working with computers4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Scheduling work and activities3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Getting information3.6/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for elementary school teachers
- Instruct students individually and in groups, using teaching methods such as lectures, discussions, and demonstrations.
- Establish and enforce rules for behavior and procedures for maintaining order among the students.
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.
- Plan and conduct activities for a balanced program of instruction, demonstration, and work time that provides students with opportunities to observe, question, and investigate.
- Prepare materials and classrooms for class activities.
- Observe and evaluate students' performance, behavior, social development, and physical health.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects -0.4% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 87,500 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 1,388,390 people work in the job today, at a median of $63,970 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full elementary school teacher profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Questions
Will AI Replace Elementary School Teachers? FAQ
Will AI replace elementary school teachers?
The job is exposed and shrinking. BLS rates the exposure as high and projects employment to fall, so expect fewer roles and more AI in the ones that remain. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to fall by 0.4% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 87,500 openings a year.
How exposed are elementary school teachers to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Elementary School Teachers are in the high category, alongside 189 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of an elementary school teacher's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are email, working with computers and scheduling work and activities. The parts that hold up best are assisting and caring for others, face-to-face discussions and coaching and developing others. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being an elementary school teacher a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, elementary school teachers score 51 out of 100, higher than 63% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $63,970 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.