Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Bakers? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places bakers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +5.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 36,500 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 51/100Higher than 63% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +5.5%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 36,500BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed bakers are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Bakers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Face-to-face discussions4.4/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Performing general physical activities3.7/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Hands-on work with tools and objects4.2/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Time spent on your feet5.0/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Repetitive motions4.4/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Getting information3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Being exact or highly accurate4.4/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Communicating with supervisors, peers, or subordinates3.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for bakers
- Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions.
- Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary.
- Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers.
- Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking.
- Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods.
- Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +5.5% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 36,500 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 236,200 people work in the job today, at a median of $37,160 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than bakers
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
- Median pay
- $50,270median a year
- Growth
- −3.6%
- Openings / yr
- 9,000
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 58/100
- resilience
Set up, operate, or tend paper goods machines that perform a variety of functions, such as converting, sawing, corrugating, banding, wrapping, boxing, stitching, forming, or sealing paper or paperboard sheets into pro…
Helpers--Production Worker
Production
- Median pay
- $39,070median a year
- Growth
- −8.2%
- Openings / yr
- 20,900
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 57/100
- resilience
Help production workers by performing duties requiring less skill.
Cook, Institution and Cafeteria
Food Preparation and Serving Related
- Median pay
- $37,450median a year
- Growth
- +2.8%
- Openings / yr
- 62,900
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 53/100
- resilience
Prepare and cook large quantities of food for institutions, such as schools, hospitals, or cafeterias.
Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Worker
Production
- Median pay
- $34,890median a year
- Growth
- +4.3%
- Openings / yr
- 28,200
- Education
- No formal credential
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Operate or tend washing or dry-cleaning machines to wash or dry-clean industrial or household articles, such as cloth garments, suede, leather, furs, blankets, draperies, linens, rugs, and carpets.
- Median pay
- $48,250median a year
- Growth
- +2.5%
- Openings / yr
- 15,300
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Set up, operate, or tend spraying or rolling machines to coat or paint any of a wide variety of products, including glassware, cloth, ceramics, metal, plastic, paper, or wood, with lacquer, silver, copper, rubber, var…
- Median pay
- $60,020median a year
- Growth
- −5.7%
- Openings / yr
- 10,000
- Education
- High school
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 52/100
- resilience
Operate or control an entire process or system of machines, often through the use of control boards, to transfer or treat water or wastewater.
Questions
Will AI Replace Bakers? FAQ
Will AI replace bakers?
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +5.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 36,500 openings a year.
How exposed are bakers to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Bakers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a baker's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are repetitive motions, getting information and being exact or highly accurate. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, performing general physical activities and hands-on work with tools and objects. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a baker a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, bakers score 51 out of 100, higher than 63% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $37,160 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to bakers are less exposed to AI?
Paper Goods Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $50,270 median), Helpers--Production Worker (low exposure, $39,070 median), Cook, Institution and Cafeteria (low exposure, $37,450 median), Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Worker (low exposure, $34,890 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than bakers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.