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AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Welders? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places welders in its low AI exposure category, among the occupations least exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to change by +2.4% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 40,300 openings a year.

Short answer

Very unlikely. BLS rates welders among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do.

BLS AI exposure
LowBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
45/100Higher than 51% of jobs · NueCareer
Projected change
+2.4%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
40,300BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed welders are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Welders land in the low category: among the occupations least exposed to current AI.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low · this job203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

  • Face-to-face discussions4.4/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Hands-on work with tools and objects4.5/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Handling and moving objects3.5/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials3.7/5
    O*NET work activity, importance

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

  • Getting information3.8/5
    O*NET work activity, importance
  • Being exact or highly accurate4.4/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level
  • Repetitive motions3.5/5
    O*NET work context, frequency or level

The tasks O*NET lists for welders

  • Operate safety equipment and use safe work habits.
  • Recognize, set up, and operate hand and power tools common to the welding trade, such as shielded metal arc and gas metal arc welding equipment.
  • Weld components in flat, vertical, or overhead positions.
  • Detect faulty operation of equipment or defective materials and notify supervisors.
  • Prepare all material surfaces to be welded, ensuring that there is no loose or thick scale, slag, rust, moisture, grease, or other foreign matter.
  • Position and secure workpieces, using hoists, cranes, wire, and banding machines or hand tools.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +2.4% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 40,300 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 416,210 people work in the job today, at a median of $53,750 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full welder profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers that are also low-exposure

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a low exposure category.

  1. Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairer

    Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

    Median pay
    $56,210median a year
    Growth
    +4.4%
    Openings / yr
    1,400
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    59/100
    resilience

    Repair, maintain, or install electric motors, wiring, or switches.

  2. Engine and Other Machine Assembler

    Production

    Median pay
    $53,710median a year
    Growth
    −17.0%
    Openings / yr
    2,100
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    58/100
    resilience

    Construct, assemble, or rebuild machines, such as engines, turbines, and similar equipment used in such industries as construction, extraction, textiles, and paper manufacturing.

  3. Structural Metal Fabricator and Fitter

    Production

    Median pay
    $51,330median a year
    Growth
    −6.2%
    Openings / yr
    4,800
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    56/100
    resilience

    Fabricate, position, align, and fit parts of structural metal products.

  4. Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender

    Production

    Median pay
    $47,920median a year
    Growth
    −8.9%
    Openings / yr
    2,500
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    53/100
    resilience

    Set up, operate, or tend welding, soldering, or brazing machines or robots that weld, braze, solder, or heat treat metal products, components, or assemblies.

  5. Boilermaker

    Construction and Extraction

    Median pay
    $76,410median a year
    Growth
    −1.8%
    Openings / yr
    700
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    53/100
    resilience

    Construct, assemble, maintain, and repair stationary steam boilers and boiler house auxiliaries.

  6. Woodworking Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender, Except Sawing

    Production

    Median pay
    $43,380median a year
    Growth
    −2.5%
    Openings / yr
    5,300
    Education
    High school
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    48/100
    resilience

    Set up, operate, or tend woodworking machines, such as drill presses, lathes, shapers, routers, sanders, planers, and wood nailing machines.

Questions

Will AI Replace Welders? FAQ

Will AI replace welders?

Very unlikely. BLS rates welders among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +2.4% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 40,300 openings a year.

How exposed are welders to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Welders are in the low category, alongside 202 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What parts of a welder's job can AI do?

In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are getting information, being exact or highly accurate and repetitive motions. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, hands-on work with tools and objects and handling and moving objects. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

Is being a welder a safe career from AI?

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, welders score 45 out of 100, higher than 51% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $53,750 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

What careers similar to welders are less exposed to AI?

Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairer (low exposure, $56,210 median), Engine and Other Machine Assembler (low exposure, $53,710 median), Structural Metal Fabricator and Fitter (low exposure, $51,330 median), Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $47,920 median). Each is also in the low category, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.