NueCareer

AI and jobs

Will AI Replace Orthopedic Surgeons? (2026)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places orthopedic surgeons in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +4.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 400 openings a year.

Short answer

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.

BLS AI exposure
ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
AI-resilience score
Not scoredNueCareer analysis of O*NET
Projected change
+4.0%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
Openings a year
400BLS EP 2025–2035

The federal measure

How exposed orthopedic surgeons are to AI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Orthopedic Surgeons land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.

Where this job sits on the BLS scale

786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each

  1. Low203 occupations · 26%
  2. Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
  3. High190 occupations · 24%
  4. Very high199 occupations · 25%

Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.

  1. Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
  2. BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
  3. The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.

Inside the work

What AI can and cannot do in this job

O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.

What holds up

Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work

None of the hands-on or person-to-person activities rate highly for this job, which is why its exposure is high.

What AI reaches first

Routine, repeatable and screen-based work

None of the routine information-processing activities rate highly for this job, which is a large part of why its exposure is low.

The tasks O*NET lists for orthopedic surgeons

  • Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure.
  • Conduct research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes related to musculoskeletal injuries and diseases.
  • Diagnose bodily disorders and orthopedic conditions, and provide treatments, such as medicines and surgeries, in clinics, hospital wards, or operating rooms.
  • Diagnose or treat disorders of the musculoskeletal system.
  • Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff.
  • Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility.

O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.

The jobs

Will there still be jobs?

Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +4.0% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 400 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 14,100 people work in the job today, at a median of $358,550 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Full orthopedic surgeon, except pediatric profile: pay by state, entry route and skills

Options

Related careers less exposed to AI than orthopedic surgeons

Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.

  1. Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $352,220median a year
    Growth
    +5.6%
    Openings / yr
    200
    Education
    Doctorate
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    57/100
    resilience

    Perform surgery and related procedures on the hard and soft tissues of the oral and maxillofacial regions to treat diseases, injuries, or defects.

  2. Prosthodontist

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $311,180median a year
    Growth
    +5.8%
    Openings / yr
    0
    Education
    Doctorate
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    57/100
    resilience

    Diagnose, treat, rehabilitate, design, and fit prostheses that maintain oral function, health, and appearance for patients with clinical conditions associated with teeth, oral and maxillofacial tissues, or the jaw.

  3. Anesthesiologist

    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

    Median pay
    $391,490median a year
    Growth
    +3.6%
    Openings / yr
    1,100
    Education
    Doctorate
    Low
    BLS AI exposure
    50/100
    resilience

    Administer anesthetics and analgesics for pain management prior to, during, or after surgery.

Will AI replace anesthesiologists?

Questions

Will AI Replace Orthopedic Surgeons? FAQ

Will AI replace orthopedic surgeons?

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +4.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 400 openings a year.

How exposed are orthopedic surgeons to AI?

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Orthopedic Surgeons are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

What careers similar to orthopedic surgeons are less exposed to AI?

Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon (low exposure, $352,220 median), Prosthodontist (low exposure, $311,180 median), Anesthesiologist (low exposure, $391,490 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than orthopedic surgeons, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.

The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.