Short answer
Very unlikely. BLS rates lifeguards among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Lifeguards? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places lifeguards in its low AI exposure category, among the occupations least exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to change by +5.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 45,400 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- LowBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 65/100Higher than 93% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +5.5%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 45,400BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed lifeguards are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Lifeguards land in the low category: among the occupations least exposed to current AI.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low · this job203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Assisting and caring for others4.6/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Performing general physical activities4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Face-to-face discussions4.6/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Performing for or working directly with the public4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Documenting/recording information3.9/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Email4.2/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Getting information3.9/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Being exact or highly accurate3.7/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
The tasks O*NET lists for lifeguards
- Rescue distressed persons, using rescue techniques and equipment.
- Contact emergency medical personnel in case of serious injury.
- Patrol or monitor recreational areas, such as trails, slopes, or swimming areas, on foot, in vehicles, or from towers.
- Examine injured persons and administer first aid or cardiopulmonary resuscitation, if necessary, using training and medical supplies and equipment.
- Instruct participants in skiing, swimming, or other recreational activities and provide safety precaution information.
- Warn recreational participants of inclement weather, unsafe areas, or illegal conduct.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +5.5% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 45,400 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 157,550 people work in the job today, at a median of $33,580 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Options
Related careers that are also low-exposure
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a low exposure category.
Paramedic
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
- Median pay
- $60,600median a year
- Growth
- +5.7%
- Openings / yr
- 4,300
- Education
- Certificate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 67/100
- resilience
Administer basic or advanced emergency medical care and assess injuries and illnesses.
Questions
Will AI Replace Lifeguards? FAQ
Will AI replace lifeguards?
Very unlikely. BLS rates lifeguards among the occupations least exposed to AI, and most of the work is the kind current AI tools cannot do. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +5.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 45,400 openings a year.
How exposed are lifeguards to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Lifeguards are in the low category, alongside 202 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a lifeguard, ski patrol, and other recreational protective service worker's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are documenting/recording information, email and getting information. The parts that hold up best are assisting and caring for others, performing general physical activities and face-to-face discussions. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a lifeguard, ski patrol, and other recreational protective service worker a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, lifeguards score 65 out of 100, higher than 93% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $33,580 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to lifeguards are less exposed to AI?
Paramedic (low exposure, $60,600 median). Each is also in the low category, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.