Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places first-line supervisors of police and detectives in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +3.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 10,600 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 60/100Higher than 85% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +3.3%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 10,600BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed first-line supervisors of police and detectives are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Assisting and caring for others4.2/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Face-to-face discussions5.0/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Performing for or working directly with the public4.3/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Resolving conflicts and negotiating with others4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Documenting/recording information4.5/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Processing information4.0/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Performing administrative activities4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Getting information4.7/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for first-line supervisors of police and detectives
- Explain police operations to subordinates to assist them in performing their job duties.
- Inform personnel of changes in regulations and policies, implications of new or amended laws, and new techniques of police work.
- Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates.
- Maintain logs, prepare reports, and direct the preparation, handling, and maintenance of departmental records.
- Inspect facilities, supplies, vehicles, and equipment to ensure conformance to standards.
- Train staff in proper police work procedures.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +3.3% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 10,600 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 154,610 people work in the job today, at a median of $106,040 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full first-line supervisor of police and detectives profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than first-line supervisors of police and detectives
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
First-Line Supervisor of Firefighting and Prevention Workers
Protective Service
- Median pay
- $93,530median a year
- Growth
- +3.7%
- Openings / yr
- 6,600
- Education
- Certificate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 64/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of workers engaged in firefighting and fire prevention and control.
Questions
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives? FAQ
Will AI replace first-line supervisors of police and detectives?
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +3.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 10,600 openings a year.
How exposed are first-line supervisors of police and detectives to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a first-line supervisor of police and detectives's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are documenting/recording information, processing information and performing administrative activities. The parts that hold up best are assisting and caring for others, face-to-face discussions and performing for or working directly with the public. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a first-line supervisor of police and detectives a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, first-line supervisors of police and detectives score 60 out of 100, higher than 85% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $106,040 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to first-line supervisors of police and detectives are less exposed to AI?
First-Line Supervisor of Firefighting and Prevention Workers (low exposure, $93,530 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than first-line supervisors of police and detectives, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.