Short answer
Unlikely to be replaced, but the job is shrinking. Exposure to AI is moderate, below the middle of the pack, and BLS projects employment to fall for reasons that are not mainly AI.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Correctional Officers and Jailers? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places correctional officers and jailers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to fall by 7.4% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 28,400 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 56/100Higher than 75% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- -7.4%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 28,400BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed correctional officers and jailers are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Correctional Officers and Jailers land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Face-to-face discussions4.9/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Resolving conflicts and negotiating with others4.2/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Assisting and caring for others3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Coaching and developing others3.8/5O*NET work activity, importance
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Documenting/recording information4.1/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Repeating the same tasks4.3/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
- Processing information3.6/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Email4.5/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
The tasks O*NET lists for correctional officers and jailers
- Participate in required job training.
- Inspect conditions of locks, window bars, grills, doors, and gates at correctional facilities to ensure security and help prevent escapes.
- Conduct fire, safety, and sanitation inspections.
- Provide to supervisors oral and written reports of the quality and quantity of work performed by inmates, inmate disturbances and rule violations, and unusual occurrences.
- Conduct head counts to ensure that each prisoner is present.
- Counsel inmates and respond to legitimate questions, concerns, and requests.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects -7.4% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 28,400 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 380,500 people work in the job today, at a median of $58,940 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full correctional officer and jailer profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than correctional officers and jailers
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
Firefighter
Protective Service
- Median pay
- $59,280median a year
- Growth
- +3.7%
- Openings / yr
- 26,800
- Education
- Certificate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 65/100
- resilience
Control and extinguish fires or respond to emergency situations where life, property, or the environment is at risk.
First-Line Supervisor of Firefighting and Prevention Workers
Protective Service
- Median pay
- $93,530median a year
- Growth
- +3.7%
- Openings / yr
- 6,600
- Education
- Certificate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 64/100
- resilience
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of workers engaged in firefighting and fire prevention and control.
Questions
Will AI Replace Correctional Officers and Jailers? FAQ
Will AI replace correctional officers and jailers?
Unlikely to be replaced, but the job is shrinking. Exposure to AI is moderate, below the middle of the pack, and BLS projects employment to fall for reasons that are not mainly AI. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to fall by 7.4% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 28,400 openings a year.
How exposed are correctional officers and jailers to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Correctional Officers and Jailers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a correctional officer and jailer's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are documenting/recording information, repeating the same tasks and processing information. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, resolving conflicts and negotiating with others and assisting and caring for others. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a correctional officer and jailer a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, correctional officers and jailers score 56 out of 100, higher than 75% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $58,940 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to correctional officers and jailers are less exposed to AI?
Firefighter (low exposure, $59,280 median), First-Line Supervisor of Firefighting and Prevention Workers (low exposure, $93,530 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than correctional officers and jailers, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.