Short answer
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.
AI and jobs
Will AI Replace Commercial Pilots? (2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics places commercial pilots in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +5.2% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 5,200 openings a year.
- BLS AI exposure
- ModerateBLS EP supplemental table
- AI-resilience score
- 56/100Higher than 75% of jobs · NueCareer
- Projected change
- +5.2%BLS EP 2025–2035; all jobs 3.5%
- Openings a year
- 5,200BLS EP 2025–2035
The federal measure
How exposed commercial pilots are to AI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a relative AI exposure category for each occupation it projects, built from five public measures of where AI could be, or already is, used to assist with or complete the work. Commercial Pilots land in the moderate category: below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not.
Where this job sits on the BLS scale
786 occupations in the NueCareer bank, in BLS's four relative categories; width shows how many fall in each
- Low203 occupations · 26%
- Moderate · this job194 occupations · 25%
- High190 occupations · 24%
- Very high199 occupations · 25%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories supplemental table.
- Exposure is relative. The categories rank occupations against each other; they are not a probability that a job is automated.
- BLS says exposure does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. A highly exposed job can still grow if AI makes the people in it more productive.
- The classification reflects AI capabilities as the underlying studies measured them. Read the BLS method and limitations.
Inside the work
What AI can and cannot do in this job
O*NET rates how important each work activity is to an occupation and how often each working condition comes up. The ratings below are the ones that move the job's NueCareer AI-resilience score the most: the ones that pull it up, and the ones that pull it down. Only ratings clearly above the midpoint count.
What holds up
Physical, hands-on and person-to-person work
- Repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment4.9/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials4.9/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Face-to-face discussions4.4/5O*NET work context, frequency or level
What AI reaches first
Routine, repeatable and screen-based work
- Processing information4.7/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Documenting/recording information4.4/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Evaluating information to determine compliance with standards4.7/5O*NET work activity, importance
- Analyzing data or information4.6/5O*NET work activity, importance
The tasks O*NET lists for commercial pilots
- Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.
- Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.
- Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.
- Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
- Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.
- Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.
O*NET 31.0 Database task statements, most important first.
The jobs
Will there still be jobs?
Exposure says where AI meets the work. The BLS projection says what the labor market is expected to do over 2025–2035. BLS projects +5.2% change in employment over the decade, against 3.5% across all occupations, and about 5,200 openings a year once retirements and career changes are counted. About 47,630 people work in the job today, at a median of $123,220 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Full commercial pilot profile: pay by state, entry route and skills
Options
Related careers less exposed to AI than commercial pilots
Careers O*NET lists as related to the work, or in the same field at similar pay, that BLS places in a lower exposure category.
Ship Engineer
Transportation and Material Moving
- Median pay
- $109,530median a year
- Growth
- +2.7%
- Openings / yr
- 900
- Education
- Certificate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 63/100
- resilience
Supervise and coordinate activities of crew engaged in operating and maintaining engines, boilers, deck machinery, and electrical, sanitary, and refrigeration equipment aboard ship.
Aircraft Mechanic
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
- Median pay
- $79,870median a year
- Growth
- +5.4%
- Openings / yr
- 11,400
- Education
- Certificate
- Low
- BLS AI exposure
- 59/100
- resilience
Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul aircraft engines and assemblies, such as hydraulic and pneumatic systems.
Questions
Will AI Replace Commercial Pilots? FAQ
Will AI replace commercial pilots?
Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +5.2% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 5,200 openings a year.
How exposed are commercial pilots to AI?
BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Commercial Pilots are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.
What parts of a commercial pilot's job can AI do?
In O*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, documenting/recording information and evaluating information to determine compliance with standards. The parts that hold up best are repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment, operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment and inspecting equipment, structures, or materials. These come from O*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.
Is being a commercial pilot a safe career from AI?
On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O*NET work activities, commercial pilots score 56 out of 100, higher than 75% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $123,220 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.
What careers similar to commercial pilots are less exposed to AI?
Ship Engineer (low exposure, $109,530 median), Aircraft Mechanic (low exposure, $79,870 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than commercial pilots, and most are listed by O*NET as related to the work.
The AI exposure category is the Bureau of Labor Statistics'. The AI-resilience score and the activity breakdown are NueCareer's analysis of O*NET 31.0 Database data (method), not a federal figure. More: jobs most exposed to AI, jobs least exposed to AI, or check any job.