---
title: "Will AI Replace Truck Drivers? (2026)"
description: "BLS rates truck drivers' exposure to AI as moderate. What that means, which parts of the work AI touches, and the 2025–2035 outlook (+3.8% projected)."
canonical: "https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-truck-drivers"
last-updated: "2026-10-15T08:19:32.066Z"
---

# Will AI Replace Truck Drivers? (2026)

**Short answer:** Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places truck drivers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +3.8% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 214,500 openings a year.

| Measure | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BLS relative AI exposure | Moderate | BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories |
| NueCareer AI-resilience score | 49/100 | NueCareer analysis of O\*NET 31.0 Database |
| Projected employment change | +3.8% | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Openings a year | 214,500 | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Median annual wage | $58,640 | BLS OEWS May 2025 |

## Exposure categories

| BLS category | Occupations |
| --- | --- |
| Low | 203 |
| Moderate (this job) | 194 |
| High | 190 |
| Very high | 199 |

Exposure means AI could be or has been used to assist with or complete some of the work. BLS says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. Method: https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm

## What holds up

- Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment: 4.6/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Working outdoors in all weather: 4.8/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Hands-on work with tools and objects: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work context)

## What AI reaches first

- Getting information: 4.3/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Time spent sitting: 4.2/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Repeating the same tasks: 3.5/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Evaluating information to determine compliance with standards: 3.7/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)

## O\*NET tasks

- Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.
- Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.
- Operate equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones, or global positioning systems (GPS) equipment to exchange necessary information with bases, supervisors, or other drivers.
- Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.
- Perform basic vehicle maintenance tasks, such as adding oil, fuel, or radiator fluid, performing minor repairs, or washing trucks.
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.

## Related careers less exposed to AI than truck drivers

- [Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator](https://nuecareer.com/careers/industrial-truck-and-tractor-operator): BLS exposure Low, median $46,420; [Will AI replace forklift operators?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-forklift-operators)
- [Bus and Truck Mechanic and Diesel Engine Specialist](https://nuecareer.com/careers/bus-and-truck-mechanic-and-diesel-engine-specialist): BLS exposure Low, median $61,770; [Will AI replace diesel mechanics?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-diesel-mechanics)
- [Loading and Moving Machine Operator, Underground Mining](https://nuecareer.com/careers/loading-and-moving-machine-operator-underground-mining): BLS exposure Low, median $74,500
- [Laborer and Freight, Stock, and Material Mover, Hand](https://nuecareer.com/careers/laborer-and-freight-stock-and-material-mover-hand): BLS exposure Low, median $40,240; [Will AI replace warehouse workers?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-warehouse-workers)
- [Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loader](https://nuecareer.com/careers/tank-car-truck-and-ship-loader): BLS exposure Low, median $58,870
- [Refuse and Recyclable Material Collector](https://nuecareer.com/careers/refuse-and-recyclable-material-collector): BLS exposure Low, median $49,690; [Will AI replace garbage collectors?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-garbage-collectors)

## FAQ

**Will AI replace truck drivers?**

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +3.8% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 214,500 openings a year.

**How exposed are truck drivers to AI?**

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Truck Drivers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

**What parts of a truck driver's job can AI do?**

In O\*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are getting information, time spent sitting and repeating the same tasks. The parts that hold up best are operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment, working outdoors in all weather and inspecting equipment, structures, or materials. These come from O\*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

**Is being a truck driver a safe career from AI?**

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O\*NET work activities, truck drivers score 49 out of 100, higher than 59% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $58,640 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

**What careers similar to truck drivers are less exposed to AI?**

Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator (low exposure, $46,420 median), Bus and Truck Mechanic and Diesel Engine Specialist (low exposure, $61,770 median), Loading and Moving Machine Operator, Underground Mining (low exposure, $74,500 median), Laborer and Freight, Stock, and Material Mover, Hand (low exposure, $40,240 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than truck drivers, and most are listed by O\*NET as related to the work.

Full profile: https://nuecareer.com/careers/truck-driver.

---

This bank includes information from the O\*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). O\*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. NueCareer has transformed the data by joining it to BLS wage and projection data and deriving facet, personality-fit and AI-resilience scores. BLS and BEA data are public domain (17 U.S.C. §105).

O\*NET content is used under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). How these figures are sourced and derived: https://nuecareer.com/careers/methodology