---
title: "Will AI Replace Production? (2026)"
description: "BLS rates production' exposure to AI as very high. What that means, which parts of the work AI touches, and the 2025–2035 outlook (-1.3% projected)."
canonical: "https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-production"
last-updated: "2026-10-15T08:19:32.066Z"
---

# Will AI Replace Production? (2026)

**Short answer:** This is one of the most exposed jobs, and BLS projects it to shrink. Exposure is not a forecast of job loss on its own, but here the two point the same way.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places production in its very high AI exposure category, among the occupations most exposed to current AI. BLS projects employment to fall by 1.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 32,600 openings a year.

| Measure | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BLS relative AI exposure | Very high | BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories |
| NueCareer AI-resilience score | 17/100 | NueCareer analysis of O\*NET 31.0 Database |
| Projected employment change | -1.3% | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Openings a year | 32,600 | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Median annual wage | $59,650 | BLS OEWS May 2025 |

## Exposure categories

| BLS category | Occupations |
| --- | --- |
| Low | 203 |
| Moderate | 194 |
| High | 190 |
| Very high (this job) | 199 |

Exposure means AI could be or has been used to assist with or complete some of the work. BLS says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. Method: https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm

## What holds up

- Face-to-face discussions: 4.9/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Making decisions and solving problems: 3.7/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Dealing with the public: 3.5/5 (O\*NET work context)

## What AI reaches first

- Processing information: 3.8/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Working with computers: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Time spent sitting: 4.2/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Email: 4.5/5 (O\*NET work context)

## O\*NET tasks

- Confer with department supervisors or other personnel to assess progress and discuss needed changes.
- Arrange for delivery, assembly, or distribution of supplies or parts to expedite flow of materials and meet production schedules.
- Distribute production schedules or work orders to departments.
- Compile information, such as production rates and progress, materials inventories, materials used, or customer information, so that status reports can be completed.
- Requisition and maintain inventories of materials or supplies necessary to meet production demands.
- Revise production schedules when required due to design changes, labor or material shortages, backlogs, or other interruptions, collaborating with management, marketing, sales, production, or engineering.

## Related careers less exposed to AI than production

- [Stocker and Order Filler](https://nuecareer.com/careers/stocker-and-order-filler): BLS exposure Moderate, median $37,330; [Will AI replace stockers and order fillers?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-stockers-and-order-fillers)
- [Weigher, Measurer, Checker, and Sampler, Recordkeeping](https://nuecareer.com/careers/weigher-measurer-checker-and-sampler-recordkeeping): BLS exposure Moderate, median $46,380
- [First-Line Supervisor of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers](https://nuecareer.com/careers/first-line-supervisor-of-mechanics-installers-and-repairers): BLS exposure High, median $79,860; [Will AI replace first-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, and repairers?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-first-line-supervisors-of-mechanics-installers-and-repairers)
- [First-Line Supervisor of Production and Operating Workers](https://nuecareer.com/careers/first-line-supervisor-of-production-and-operating-workers): BLS exposure High, median $74,450; [Will AI replace first-line supervisors of production and operating workers?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-first-line-supervisors-of-production-and-operating-workers)
- [Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerk](https://nuecareer.com/careers/shipping-receiving-and-inventory-clerk): BLS exposure High, median $45,260; [Will AI replace shipping clerks?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-shipping-clerks)
- [Industrial Engineering Technologist and Technician](https://nuecareer.com/careers/industrial-engineering-technologist-and-technician): BLS exposure High, median $66,120

## FAQ

**Will AI replace production?**

This is one of the most exposed jobs, and BLS projects it to shrink. Exposure is not a forecast of job loss on its own, but here the two point the same way. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to fall by 1.3% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 32,600 openings a year.

**How exposed are production to AI?**

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Production are in the very high category, alongside 198 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

**What parts of a production, planning, and expediting clerk's job can AI do?**

In O\*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, working with computers and time spent sitting. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, making decisions and solving problems and dealing with the public. These come from O\*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

**Is being a production, planning, and expediting clerk a safe career from AI?**

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O\*NET work activities, production score 17 out of 100, higher than 9% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $59,650 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

**What careers similar to production are less exposed to AI?**

Stocker and Order Filler (moderate exposure, $37,330 median), Weigher, Measurer, Checker, and Sampler, Recordkeeping (moderate exposure, $46,380 median), First-Line Supervisor of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (high exposure, $79,860 median), First-Line Supervisor of Production and Operating Workers (high exposure, $74,450 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than production, and most are listed by O\*NET as related to the work.

Full profile: https://nuecareer.com/careers/production-planning-and-expediting-clerk.

---

This bank includes information from the O\*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). O\*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. NueCareer has transformed the data by joining it to BLS wage and projection data and deriving facet, personality-fit and AI-resilience scores. BLS and BEA data are public domain (17 U.S.C. §105).

O\*NET content is used under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). How these figures are sourced and derived: https://nuecareer.com/careers/methodology