---
title: "Will AI Replace Machinists? (2026)"
description: "BLS rates machinists' exposure to AI as moderate. What that means, which parts of the work AI touches, and the 2025–2035 outlook (+1.0% projected)."
canonical: "https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-machinists"
last-updated: "2026-10-15T08:19:32.066Z"
---

# Will AI Replace Machinists? (2026)

**Short answer:** Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places machinists in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +1.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 26,100 openings a year.

| Measure | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BLS relative AI exposure | Moderate | BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories |
| NueCareer AI-resilience score | 47/100 | NueCareer analysis of O\*NET 31.0 Database |
| Projected employment change | +1.0% | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Openings a year | 26,100 | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Median annual wage | $58,750 | BLS OEWS May 2025 |

## Exposure categories

| BLS category | Occupations |
| --- | --- |
| Low | 203 |
| Moderate (this job) | 194 |
| High | 190 |
| Very high | 199 |

Exposure means AI could be or has been used to assist with or complete some of the work. BLS says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. Method: https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm

## What holds up

- Hands-on work with tools and objects: 4.9/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Face-to-face discussions: 4.5/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment: 3.8/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials: 4.3/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)

## What AI reaches first

- Repeating the same tasks: 3.9/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Getting information: 4.3/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Repetitive motions: 4.0/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Processing information: 3.5/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)

## O\*NET tasks

- Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments, such as micrometers or vernier calipers.
- Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders.
- Maintain machine tools in proper operational condition.
- Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations.
- Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers.
- Align and secure holding fixtures, cutting tools, attachments, accessories, or materials onto machines.

## Related careers less exposed to AI than machinists

- [Millwright](https://nuecareer.com/careers/millwright): BLS exposure Low, median $65,700
- [Paper Goods Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender](https://nuecareer.com/careers/paper-goods-machine-setter-operator-and-tender): BLS exposure Low, median $50,270
- [Mixing and Blending Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender](https://nuecareer.com/careers/mixing-and-blending-machine-setter-operator-and-tender): BLS exposure Low, median $48,990
- [Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender](https://nuecareer.com/careers/welding-soldering-and-brazing-machine-setter-operator-and-tender): BLS exposure Low, median $47,920
- [Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender](https://nuecareer.com/careers/coating-painting-and-spraying-machine-setter-operator-and-tender): BLS exposure Low, median $48,250; [Will AI replace coating?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-coating)
- [Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operator](https://nuecareer.com/careers/water-and-wastewater-treatment-plant-and-system-operator): BLS exposure Low, median $60,020; [Will AI replace water treatment operators?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-water-treatment-operators)

## FAQ

**Will AI replace machinists?**

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +1.0% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 26,100 openings a year.

**How exposed are machinists to AI?**

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Machinists are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

**What parts of a machinist's job can AI do?**

In O\*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are repeating the same tasks, getting information and repetitive motions. The parts that hold up best are hands-on work with tools and objects, face-to-face discussions and repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment. These come from O\*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

**Is being a machinist a safe career from AI?**

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O\*NET work activities, machinists score 47 out of 100, higher than 54% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $58,750 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

**What careers similar to machinists are less exposed to AI?**

Millwright (low exposure, $65,700 median), Paper Goods Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $50,270 median), Mixing and Blending Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $48,990 median), Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $47,920 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than machinists, and most are listed by O\*NET as related to the work.

Full profile: https://nuecareer.com/careers/machinist.

---

This bank includes information from the O\*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). O\*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. NueCareer has transformed the data by joining it to BLS wage and projection data and deriving facet, personality-fit and AI-resilience scores. BLS and BEA data are public domain (17 U.S.C. §105).

O\*NET content is used under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). How these figures are sourced and derived: https://nuecareer.com/careers/methodology