---
title: "Will AI Replace Commercial Pilots? (2026)"
description: "BLS rates commercial pilots' exposure to AI as moderate. What that means, which parts of the work AI touches, and the 2025–2035 outlook (+5.2% projected)."
canonical: "https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-commercial-pilots"
last-updated: "2026-10-15T08:19:32.066Z"
---

# Will AI Replace Commercial Pilots? (2026)

**Short answer:** Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places commercial pilots in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +5.2% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 5,200 openings a year.

| Measure | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BLS relative AI exposure | Moderate | BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories |
| NueCareer AI-resilience score | 56/100 | NueCareer analysis of O\*NET 31.0 Database |
| Projected employment change | +5.2% | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Openings a year | 5,200 | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Median annual wage | $123,220 | BLS OEWS May 2025 |

## Exposure categories

| BLS category | Occupations |
| --- | --- |
| Low | 203 |
| Moderate (this job) | 194 |
| High | 190 |
| Very high | 199 |

Exposure means AI could be or has been used to assist with or complete some of the work. BLS says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. Method: https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm

## What holds up

- Repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment: 4.9/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Inspecting equipment, structures, or materials: 4.9/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Face-to-face discussions: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work context)

## What AI reaches first

- Processing information: 4.7/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Documenting/recording information: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Evaluating information to determine compliance with standards: 4.7/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Analyzing data or information: 4.6/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)

## O\*NET tasks

- Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.
- Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.
- Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.
- Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
- Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.
- Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

## Related careers less exposed to AI than commercial pilots

- [Ship Engineer](https://nuecareer.com/careers/ship-engineer): BLS exposure Low, median $109,530
- [Aircraft Mechanic](https://nuecareer.com/careers/aircraft-mechanic): BLS exposure Low, median $79,870; [Will AI replace aircraft mechanics?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-aircraft-mechanics)

## FAQ

**Will AI replace commercial pilots?**

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +5.2% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 5,200 openings a year.

**How exposed are commercial pilots to AI?**

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Commercial Pilots are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

**What parts of a commercial pilot's job can AI do?**

In O\*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are processing information, documenting/recording information and evaluating information to determine compliance with standards. The parts that hold up best are repairing and maintaining mechanical equipment, operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment and inspecting equipment, structures, or materials. These come from O\*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

**Is being a commercial pilot a safe career from AI?**

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O\*NET work activities, commercial pilots score 56 out of 100, higher than 75% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $123,220 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

**What careers similar to commercial pilots are less exposed to AI?**

Ship Engineer (low exposure, $109,530 median), Aircraft Mechanic (low exposure, $79,870 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than commercial pilots, and most are listed by O\*NET as related to the work.

Full profile: https://nuecareer.com/careers/commercial-pilot.

---

This bank includes information from the O\*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). O\*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. NueCareer has transformed the data by joining it to BLS wage and projection data and deriving facet, personality-fit and AI-resilience scores. BLS and BEA data are public domain (17 U.S.C. §105).

O\*NET content is used under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). How these figures are sourced and derived: https://nuecareer.com/careers/methodology