---
title: "Will AI Replace Bus Drivers? (2026)"
description: "BLS rates bus drivers' exposure to AI as moderate. What that means, which parts of the work AI touches, and the 2025–2035 outlook (+0.7% projected)."
canonical: "https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-bus-drivers"
last-updated: "2026-10-15T08:19:32.066Z"
---

# Will AI Replace Bus Drivers? (2026)

**Short answer:** Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places bus drivers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +0.7% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 56,500 openings a year.

| Measure | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BLS relative AI exposure | Moderate | BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories |
| NueCareer AI-resilience score | 52/100 | NueCareer analysis of O\*NET 31.0 Database |
| Projected employment change | +0.7% | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Openings a year | 56,500 | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Median annual wage | $47,920 | BLS OEWS May 2025 |

## Exposure categories

| BLS category | Occupations |
| --- | --- |
| Low | 203 |
| Moderate (this job) | 194 |
| High | 190 |
| Very high | 199 |

Exposure means AI could be or has been used to assist with or complete some of the work. BLS says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. Method: https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm

## What holds up

- Face-to-face discussions: 4.2/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Assisting and caring for others: 3.7/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment: 4.2/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Hands-on work with tools and objects: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work context)

## What AI reaches first

- Time spent sitting: 4.3/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Repetitive motions: 3.8/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Documenting/recording information: 3.5/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Getting information: 3.9/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)

## O\*NET tasks

- Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.
- Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.
- Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.
- Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.
- Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.
- Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.

## Related careers less exposed to AI than bus drivers

- [Crane and Tower Operator](https://nuecareer.com/careers/crane-and-tower-operator): BLS exposure Low, median $68,080; [Will AI replace crane operators?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-crane-operators)
- [Ambulance Driver and Attendant, Except Emergency Medical Technicians](https://nuecareer.com/careers/ambulance-driver-and-attendant): BLS exposure Low, median $35,450
- [Sailor and Marine Oiler](https://nuecareer.com/careers/sailor-and-marine-oiler): BLS exposure Low, median $51,520
- [Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator](https://nuecareer.com/careers/industrial-truck-and-tractor-operator): BLS exposure Low, median $46,420; [Will AI replace forklift operators?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-forklift-operators)
- [Laborer and Freight, Stock, and Material Mover, Hand](https://nuecareer.com/careers/laborer-and-freight-stock-and-material-mover-hand): BLS exposure Low, median $40,240; [Will AI replace warehouse workers?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-warehouse-workers)
- [Conveyor Operator and Tender](https://nuecareer.com/careers/conveyor-operator-and-tender): BLS exposure Low, median $42,420

## FAQ

**Will AI replace bus drivers?**

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +0.7% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 56,500 openings a year.

**How exposed are bus drivers to AI?**

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Bus Drivers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

**What parts of a bus driver, school's job can AI do?**

In O\*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are time spent sitting, repetitive motions and documenting/recording information. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, assisting and caring for others and operating vehicles, mechanized devices, or equipment. These come from O\*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

**Is being a bus driver, school a safe career from AI?**

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O\*NET work activities, bus drivers score 52 out of 100, higher than 66% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $47,920 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

**What careers similar to bus drivers are less exposed to AI?**

Crane and Tower Operator (low exposure, $68,080 median), Ambulance Driver and Attendant, Except Emergency Medical Technicians (low exposure, $35,450 median), Sailor and Marine Oiler (low exposure, $51,520 median), Industrial Truck and Tractor Operator (low exposure, $46,420 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than bus drivers, and most are listed by O\*NET as related to the work.

Full profile: https://nuecareer.com/careers/bus-driver-school.

---

This bank includes information from the O\*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). O\*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. NueCareer has transformed the data by joining it to BLS wage and projection data and deriving facet, personality-fit and AI-resilience scores. BLS and BEA data are public domain (17 U.S.C. §105).

O\*NET content is used under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). How these figures are sourced and derived: https://nuecareer.com/careers/methodology