---
title: "Will AI Replace Bakers? (2026)"
description: "BLS rates bakers' exposure to AI as moderate. What that means, which parts of the work AI touches, and the 2025–2035 outlook (+5.5% projected)."
canonical: "https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-bakers"
last-updated: "2026-10-15T08:19:32.066Z"
---

# Will AI Replace Bakers? (2026)

**Short answer:** Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics places bakers in its moderate AI exposure category, below the middle of the pack: some of the work overlaps with what AI can do, much of it does not. BLS projects employment to change by +5.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 36,500 openings a year.

| Measure | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BLS relative AI exposure | Moderate | BLS Employment Projections, AI exposure categories |
| NueCareer AI-resilience score | 51/100 | NueCareer analysis of O\*NET 31.0 Database |
| Projected employment change | +5.5% | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Openings a year | 36,500 | BLS EP 2025–2035 |
| Median annual wage | $37,160 | BLS OEWS May 2025 |

## Exposure categories

| BLS category | Occupations |
| --- | --- |
| Low | 203 |
| Moderate (this job) | 194 |
| High | 190 |
| Very high | 199 |

Exposure means AI could be or has been used to assist with or complete some of the work. BLS says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. Method: https://www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm

## What holds up

- Face-to-face discussions: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Performing general physical activities: 3.7/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Hands-on work with tools and objects: 4.2/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Time spent on your feet: 5.0/5 (O\*NET work context)

## What AI reaches first

- Repetitive motions: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Getting information: 3.8/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)
- Being exact or highly accurate: 4.4/5 (O\*NET work context)
- Communicating with supervisors, peers, or subordinates: 3.4/5 (O\*NET work activity importance)

## O\*NET tasks

- Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions.
- Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary.
- Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers.
- Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking.
- Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods.
- Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met.

## Related careers less exposed to AI than bakers

- [Paper Goods Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender](https://nuecareer.com/careers/paper-goods-machine-setter-operator-and-tender): BLS exposure Low, median $50,270
- [Helpers--Production Worker](https://nuecareer.com/careers/helpers-production-worker): BLS exposure Low, median $39,070; [Will AI replace production worker helpers?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-production-worker-helpers)
- [Cook, Institution and Cafeteria](https://nuecareer.com/careers/cook-institution-and-cafeteria): BLS exposure Low, median $37,450
- [Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Worker](https://nuecareer.com/careers/laundry-and-dry-cleaning-worker): BLS exposure Low, median $34,890; [Will AI replace laundry and dry-cleaning workers?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-laundry-and-dry-cleaning-workers)
- [Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender](https://nuecareer.com/careers/coating-painting-and-spraying-machine-setter-operator-and-tender): BLS exposure Low, median $48,250; [Will AI replace coating?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-coating)
- [Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operator](https://nuecareer.com/careers/water-and-wastewater-treatment-plant-and-system-operator): BLS exposure Low, median $60,020; [Will AI replace water treatment operators?](https://nuecareer.com/careers/will-ai-replace-water-treatment-operators)

## FAQ

**Will AI replace bakers?**

Unlikely. BLS rates the work's exposure to AI as moderate, below the middle of the pack, and still projects employment to grow faster than average. BLS defines exposure as AI being able to assist with or complete some of the work, and says it does not imply job loss, productivity gains or wage effects. BLS projects employment to change by +5.5% over 2025–2035, against 3.5% for all occupations, with about 36,500 openings a year.

**How exposed are bakers to AI?**

BLS sorts 786 occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Bakers are in the moderate category, alongside 193 other occupations. The categories combine five public measures of where AI could be or already is used, and they compare occupations with each other rather than giving an absolute risk.

**What parts of a baker's job can AI do?**

In O\*NET's description of the work, the parts that overlap most with what AI handles well are repetitive motions, getting information and being exact or highly accurate. The parts that hold up best are face-to-face discussions, performing general physical activities and hands-on work with tools and objects. These come from O\*NET ratings of how important each activity is to the job, read through NueCareer's AI-resilience method.

**Is being a baker a safe career from AI?**

On NueCareer's AI-resilience score, built from O\*NET work activities, bakers score 51 out of 100, higher than 63% of the occupations we score. The job pays a median of $37,160 a year (BLS OEWS, May 2025). No job is fully safe from technological change, but the federal exposure category and the projected openings are the two numbers worth weighing.

**What careers similar to bakers are less exposed to AI?**

Paper Goods Machine Setter, Operator, and Tender (low exposure, $50,270 median), Helpers--Production Worker (low exposure, $39,070 median), Cook, Institution and Cafeteria (low exposure, $37,450 median), Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Worker (low exposure, $34,890 median). Each is in a lower BLS exposure category than bakers, and most are listed by O\*NET as related to the work.

Full profile: https://nuecareer.com/careers/baker.

---

This bank includes information from the O\*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). O\*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. NueCareer has transformed the data by joining it to BLS wage and projection data and deriving facet, personality-fit and AI-resilience scores. BLS and BEA data are public domain (17 U.S.C. §105).

O\*NET content is used under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). How these figures are sourced and derived: https://nuecareer.com/careers/methodology